U.S. economy and Brexit

The United Kingdom shocked the world when its citizens voted to leave the European Union Thursday.

The so-called Brexit has wide implications for the U.S. economy, which is already facing a slew of headwinds.

brexit_www.patrickiturra.com

The chief of the U.S. central bank and top monetary policy setting official, Janet Yellen, forewarned earlier this week that Brexit “would negatively affect financial conditions and the U.S. economy.”

Trade between the two nations only makes up 0.5% of U.S. economic activity. However, the connections go well beyond direct trade between the two global powers.

The effect on America can come through a number of chain reactions — a Brexit domino effect on the global economy. Here are four ways the wake of Brexit could hurt the U.S. economy.

 

1. Fears that the EU may be falling apart

One of the key global concerns rattling the markets is that Britain could be just the first of more EU countries to leave the union. On Friday, French right-wing leader Maine Le Pen called for France’s own referendum vote. Concerns have been raised about referendums from Italy and the Netherlands too.

The European Union is one of the world’s largest trading blocs and it’s a major trade partner with China and the United States. If it breaks, it could lead to a lot of global uncertainty and many trade deals would need to be restructured.

Some experts caution that fears of the EU falling apart are overblown. After all, the UK always used the pound as its currency. Other countries like France would have to ditch the euro and reintroduce their old currency. That’s a much more difficult transition than what the UK must navigate now.

Plus the high expectation of a looming recession in the UK may give other countries pause, especially if they see an economic storm that Britain may endure after Brexit.

Still, the fear of the EU’s opaque path ahead is real.

“We also need to acknowledge we are faced with lots of doubts about the direction of Europe … not just in the U.K. but in other countries as well,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters.

2. Volatile markets slow down the engine of U.S. growth

American consumers make up the majority of U.S. economic activity. If they don’t spend, the economy doesn’t grow. And how much they spend often depends on how they feel good about where the country is heading. Americans don’t buy homes and cars if things look bleak and a stock market downturn can really whittle down confidence.

Brexit is already causing severe volatility in global stock markets. If that volatility continues for weeks and months, it could cause American business owners and consumers to reconsider their spending plans.

“The keys to whether the U.S. economy is affected significantly will be whether equities tumble enough to have a major impact on business and consumer confidence,” says Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a research firm.

A cutback by consumers would be particularly bad news at the moment.

U.S. job gains have slowed this spring and economic growth was sluggish in the winter. But a recent pickup in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots. The added momentum in spending had raised hopes that growth would rise in spring and summer.

eu_uk_usa_flags

3. Brexit triggers a strong dollar, which hurts U.S. trade

A strong dollar sounds good — and it is for American travelers — but it’s bad for U.S. businesses that sell products overseas.

On Friday morning, the U.S. dollar quickly rallied against the British pound, up 6.3% Friday, its biggest one-day gain since 1967, according to FactSet, a financial data firm.

A strong dollar makes company’s products more expensive — and less attractive — to buyers outside the U.S. That hurts sales for tech giants like Apple (AAPLTech30), equipment makers like Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) and global brands like Coca-Cola (KO) and Nike (NKE).

It’s one of the key reasons why Corporate America has been in an “earnings recession,” with profits declining for three straight quarter on an annual basis.

“The biggest impact economically is the dollar impact,” says Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management. “If the dollar surges on [Brexit] for any period of time, then you’re going to see fears of the profits recession lasting longer.”

In short, a stronger dollar typically lowers U.S. exports — a theme we saw last year. The U.S. manufacturing sector, which relies heavily on trade, fell into a 5-month recession triggered by the strong dollar. Manufacturing lost a net 39,000 jobs in the past 12 months.

So if the dollar continues its post-Brexit gains, it would spell bad news for U.S. trade and manufacturing, which is just digging out of its hole from last year.

A stronger dollar could make imported items cheaper for U.S. consumers, which could offset consumer fears about volatile global markets. But at this point, fears of a stronger dollar appear to be outweighing positives of it.

4. Brexit forces the Fed to rewrite its rate hike playbook 

In December, the Federal Reserve projected that it would raise rates four times this year — a strong sign that the U.S. economy has recovered from the Great Recession. Higher interest rates benefit savers, who can make more money on deposits.

But by June, several Fed committee members were only calling for one rate hike in the wake of weak growth and slowing job gains.

If the volatility in markets from Brexit continues, and if U.S. consumers pare back spending, and employers slow down hiring even more, the Fed could be looking at zero rate hikes in 2016. In fact, markets are starting to increase their expectations for a rate cut this year.

It’s not how the Federal Reserve had planned the year to unfold. U.S. central bank officials had started the year with high expectations after raising rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade, also known as “liftoff.”

But instead, the Fed is coming back down to earth. Other central banks around the world have lowered rates into negative territory and the conversation has shifted to whether the Fed should consider that move too.

“For the Federal Reserve, a Brexit vote would make it more difficult to raise interest rates,” says PNC senior international economist Bill Adams.

More at Do You Need Insurance Against the U.S. Dollar? 

By Patrick Gillespie  and  Mark Thompson contributed to this story

What Happens When Yellen Raises Rates?

Now we’re in the 7th year of good economy, after the FED increased the rate to .25 pts., we will start a deflationary economy, at 9 years, we will start a new recession market.

Be ready and start today, don’t miss the new great opportunity. Start your own business, incorporate, create real wealth with a cash flow system. Contact me HERE for more detail.

It’s never been more important to understand how much control the central banks have over the economy and its limits. There’s one force moving our economy they can not influence…discover what it is in this video.

Mike Maloney candidly explains what actions the Federal Reserve may take in months ahead and what it means to you and your money in this brief video recorded live at the 2015 Silver Summit.

 

Patrick Iturra, Corporate Adviser

Do you need Insurance against the U.S. Dollar?

The world’s financial landscape is changing…
And it could soon cause a lot of money to move out of the U.S. dollar.
So how do you protect yourself? By following China’s lead.
Let me explain…
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) announced that China’s currency – the yuan – will join its reserve currency basket.
This basket includes the currencies of the world’s financial superpowers – the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, and the euro.
The yuan being added to this basket will give China a new global status. And  Steve Sjuggerud says it will cause hundreds of billions of dollars to move into the yuan… and potentially out of the U.S. dollar. Here’s what he wrote in a May DailyWealth essay:
Billions of dollars will move into [the yuan] when it achieves reserve currency status. The likely loser in this will be the U.S. dollar – as governments diversify a percentage of their currency reserves out of the dollar and into this currency.
You see, the U.S. is facing an enormous $59 trillion debt problem. The only way for the U.S. government to pay its incredible debt is to print more and more dollars… and debase an already devalued currency. (Every time the Fed prints a new dollar, the value of every dollar in circulation declines just a little bit.) This doesn’t make the dollar all that appealing to investors.
Printing-money
But soon, investors will have a new, more appealing reserve currency to invest in. China is the world’s second-largest economy. In a few years it could be the world’s largest economy. And China has a huge hoard of gold. From January to September, the country added around 1,171 metric tons of gold to its hoard. That’s more than the Swiss government has in its vaults. And in October, China bought another 14 metric tons of gold. China has spent about $70 million buying gold over the past two years.
While it’s probably impossible for China to have a completely “gold-backed” currency, this gold allows the yuan to offer a guarantee more substantial than the dollar, which is only backed by the “full faith and credit of the U.S. government.”
That’s why investors are soon likely to diversify out of the dollar and into the yuan.
So how do you protect yourself from a decline in the U.S. dollar? Follow China’s lead and buy gold…
China-Gold
In November,  China has secretly been buying massive amounts of gold as insurance against the U.S. dollar.
In short, thanks to its exports, China’s foreign-currency reserves have swollen from $2.5 billion in 1980 to $3.7 trillion today… So China has had to figure out what to do with all that cash.
Initially, China bought U.S. government bonds. It holds $1.3 trillion in U.S. bonds… the most U.S. debt in the world. But with a dollar crisis likely on the way, China faces a huge problem…
So it has been “safeguarding” the value of its currency reserves. That means one thing… buying gold. Because gold is a real store of value, the price of gold goes up if something bad happens to the U.S. stock market or dollar.
I recommend safeguarding your own wealth against the dollar by buying and holding gold bullion. And with the price of gold down more than 40% since its 2011 peak, there hasn’t been a better time to buy in the past five years.
Take a page from China’s playbook… stock up on some gold bullion. It’s a smart insurance policy as the world’s financial landscape changes.
If paper currencies like the U.S. dollar collapse, gold will still hold value. That’s why Doug Casey, one of the world’s top experts on gold and resource investing, views gold as “cash in its most basic form.” 
Contact me HERE if you need more information about my gold free program strategy

Found $2.7 Trillion Magical Dollars

Learn More: Blame the government, not Wall Street [“A liquidity drought can exacerbate, or even trigger, the next financial crisis. Sellers will offer securities, but there will be no buyers”]

If you need to start a new venture. I have the system that can provide the cash flow to build your business and start capitalizing in tangible assets. For more information contact me HERE

Fed May Take Rates Negative, Bond And Stock Markets Crash Warning, GOP and DNC Fear Trump

The Federal Reserve is not raising interest rates, but now there are hints by Fed Head Janet Yellen that it might consider negative interest rates if the economy gets bad enough. The economy is already bad, and the Fed decision to keep a key rate near 0% says it all. I have been telling you for a couple of years that there is no real recovery on Main Street. The only real recovery is on Wall Street. Data point after data point shows the economy is not good. This is why the Fed is not raising interest rates.

On top of that bad news, people like Nobel Prize winning economist Professor Robert Shiller continue to warn that the stock market looks like it is in a bubble. There are also reports of the biggest double top in stock market history that was recently made, and when that happens, it is downhill for the markets. This includes the global debt market that dwarfs the stock market by orders of magnitude. I just interviewed former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman, and he says the “financial system is booby trapped with debt bombs.” This is not if the bond market will blow up, but only a matter of when the bond market will blow up.

CNN was the only real loser in the second GOP debate. The debate started out looking like CNN just wanted the candidates to trash Trump. It looked juvenile and petty, and even NJ Governor Chris Christie called BS on the BS when he directed the discussion back to how the GOP was going to help the struggling middle class. Trump won the debate by virtue of the fact CNN centered it on him and tried to get the other candidates to tear him down. Sure, there were candidates that had their moments, and some will move up and down in the polls, but Trump still emerges as the front-runner. Let’s make this perfectly clear, Donald trump could win it all.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up. usawatchdog.com

Blame the government, not Wall Street

Billionaire Steve Schwarzman warns of next financial crisis

That’s what billionaire private equity boss Steve Schwarzman argues in an op-ed he authored in The Wall Street Journal that was posted Tuesday night.

Schwarzman is the latest financial CEO to warn that new laws put in place after the Great Recession are likely to cause a liquidity crisis that could tank the economy again.

“A liquidity drought can exacerbate, or even trigger, the next financial crisis. Sellers will offer securities, but there will be no buyers,” wrote Schwarzman, founder of Blackstone (BX), one of the world’s largest private equity firms.

blackstone-ceo-schwarzman-private-equity

Problematic regulation: He acknowledged that the Dodd-Frank law has made the banking system stronger by requiring banks to hold more liquid assets on hand (translation: cash or assets that can be easily sold in times of duress). However, there are unintended consequences.

Since banks are holding on to more assets, there simply aren’t as many buyers and sellers of stocks, bonds and other investments. He cites a Deutsche Bank (DB) report that said corporate bond inventories are down 90% since 2001.

“Taken together, these regulatory changes may well fuel the next financial crisis as well as slow U.S. economic growth,” he warns. Investors got a small preview in October of what could be coming when the bond market got spooked and experienced a massive swing.

More red flags: Economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, recently made similar comments.

Roubini warned of the existence of a “liquidity time bomb” that he fears will eventually “trigger a bust and a collapse” in the market.

While Roubini believes increased regulation is a factor, he also says the rise of lightening-fast computer trading contributes to the problem and that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented efforts to stimulate economic growth have also likely created asset bubbles.

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon has gone as far as to say that Wall Street is “under assault” now from regulators. The Dodd-Frank regulations have made it harder for banks to make as much money as they did in the past, especially from trading.

There’s an ongoing debate in Washington about what’s a good amount of regulation for banks. Some politicians — most notably Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren — have called for big banks like JPMorgan Chase to break up so they won’t be as big of a threat to financial markets if something goes wrong.

Schwarzman argues that small and medium-sized banks have been hurt even more by Dodd-Frank and that no bank — big or small — will want to lend or trade much in the next big crisis.

This is the opportunity you are looking for…

Call me and I’ll show you how you can have a product that can sell on auto pilot and in the meantime you can capitalize in tangible assets. Contact me HERE for more detail.

Source: Wall Street Journal / CNNMoney

Economic Crisis 2015 & Great Opportunity

 Economic Crisis 2015 – Peter Schiff & Mike Maloney

Recently Peter Schiff visited Mike Maloney in California. During his stay they filmed nearly 3 hours of discussions about precious metals, freedom, and the economy in general.

Over the next few weeks we’ll be publishing a series of these videos, so make sure you are subscribed as this analysis is not to be missed. In this first installment, Mike and Peter discuss hard evidence that a huge economic crisis awaits us in the not too distant future.

Contact me HERE, to receive a cash flow business strategy, build your own system, and take advantage of this economic crisis