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U.S. economy and Brexit

The United Kingdom shocked the world when its citizens voted to leave the European Union Thursday.

The so-called Brexit has wide implications for the U.S. economy, which is already facing a slew of headwinds.

brexit_www.patrickiturra.com

The chief of the U.S. central bank and top monetary policy setting official, Janet Yellen, forewarned earlier this week that Brexit “would negatively affect financial conditions and the U.S. economy.”

Trade between the two nations only makes up 0.5% of U.S. economic activity. However, the connections go well beyond direct trade between the two global powers.

The effect on America can come through a number of chain reactions — a Brexit domino effect on the global economy. Here are four ways the wake of Brexit could hurt the U.S. economy.

 

1. Fears that the EU may be falling apart

One of the key global concerns rattling the markets is that Britain could be just the first of more EU countries to leave the union. On Friday, French right-wing leader Maine Le Pen called for France’s own referendum vote. Concerns have been raised about referendums from Italy and the Netherlands too.

The European Union is one of the world’s largest trading blocs and it’s a major trade partner with China and the United States. If it breaks, it could lead to a lot of global uncertainty and many trade deals would need to be restructured.

Some experts caution that fears of the EU falling apart are overblown. After all, the UK always used the pound as its currency. Other countries like France would have to ditch the euro and reintroduce their old currency. That’s a much more difficult transition than what the UK must navigate now.

Plus the high expectation of a looming recession in the UK may give other countries pause, especially if they see an economic storm that Britain may endure after Brexit.

Still, the fear of the EU’s opaque path ahead is real.

“We also need to acknowledge we are faced with lots of doubts about the direction of Europe … not just in the U.K. but in other countries as well,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters.

2. Volatile markets slow down the engine of U.S. growth

American consumers make up the majority of U.S. economic activity. If they don’t spend, the economy doesn’t grow. And how much they spend often depends on how they feel good about where the country is heading. Americans don’t buy homes and cars if things look bleak and a stock market downturn can really whittle down confidence.

Brexit is already causing severe volatility in global stock markets. If that volatility continues for weeks and months, it could cause American business owners and consumers to reconsider their spending plans.

“The keys to whether the U.S. economy is affected significantly will be whether equities tumble enough to have a major impact on business and consumer confidence,” says Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a research firm.

A cutback by consumers would be particularly bad news at the moment.

U.S. job gains have slowed this spring and economic growth was sluggish in the winter. But a recent pickup in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots. The added momentum in spending had raised hopes that growth would rise in spring and summer.

eu_uk_usa_flags

3. Brexit triggers a strong dollar, which hurts U.S. trade

A strong dollar sounds good — and it is for American travelers — but it’s bad for U.S. businesses that sell products overseas.

On Friday morning, the U.S. dollar quickly rallied against the British pound, up 6.3% Friday, its biggest one-day gain since 1967, according to FactSet, a financial data firm.

A strong dollar makes company’s products more expensive — and less attractive — to buyers outside the U.S. That hurts sales for tech giants like Apple (AAPLTech30), equipment makers like Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) and global brands like Coca-Cola (KO) and Nike (NKE).

It’s one of the key reasons why Corporate America has been in an “earnings recession,” with profits declining for three straight quarter on an annual basis.

“The biggest impact economically is the dollar impact,” says Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management. “If the dollar surges on [Brexit] for any period of time, then you’re going to see fears of the profits recession lasting longer.”

In short, a stronger dollar typically lowers U.S. exports — a theme we saw last year. The U.S. manufacturing sector, which relies heavily on trade, fell into a 5-month recession triggered by the strong dollar. Manufacturing lost a net 39,000 jobs in the past 12 months.

So if the dollar continues its post-Brexit gains, it would spell bad news for U.S. trade and manufacturing, which is just digging out of its hole from last year.

A stronger dollar could make imported items cheaper for U.S. consumers, which could offset consumer fears about volatile global markets. But at this point, fears of a stronger dollar appear to be outweighing positives of it.

4. Brexit forces the Fed to rewrite its rate hike playbook 

In December, the Federal Reserve projected that it would raise rates four times this year — a strong sign that the U.S. economy has recovered from the Great Recession. Higher interest rates benefit savers, who can make more money on deposits.

But by June, several Fed committee members were only calling for one rate hike in the wake of weak growth and slowing job gains.

If the volatility in markets from Brexit continues, and if U.S. consumers pare back spending, and employers slow down hiring even more, the Fed could be looking at zero rate hikes in 2016. In fact, markets are starting to increase their expectations for a rate cut this year.

It’s not how the Federal Reserve had planned the year to unfold. U.S. central bank officials had started the year with high expectations after raising rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade, also known as “liftoff.”

But instead, the Fed is coming back down to earth. Other central banks around the world have lowered rates into negative territory and the conversation has shifted to whether the Fed should consider that move too.

“For the Federal Reserve, a Brexit vote would make it more difficult to raise interest rates,” says PNC senior international economist Bill Adams.

More at Do You Need Insurance Against the U.S. Dollar? 

By Patrick Gillespie  and  Mark Thompson contributed to this story

If Donald Trump Becomes President

Here Are the Stocks to Buy…

Companies in these four industries would benefit.

by  Simon Constable 

Big change in the land’s highest office can mean big changes in the economy. In general, promises are broken or only half kept. Still, we get clues on which areas of the economy will be favored, and which will not. Health care got a boost under President Obama, and defense did well under George W. Bush. With any politician running for office it’s hard to know exactly how things will turn out if they’re elected. What if Donald Trump were to become the next U.S. President, which sectors would benefit then? Here’s what some experts had to say on the matter:

Defense

US-NORWAY-LOCKHEED MARTIN F-35A LIGHTNING II JET FIGHTER
First Norwegian Armed Forces Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II, known as AM-1 Joint Strike Jet Fighter, is unveiled during the rollout celebration at Lockheed Martin production facility in Fort Worth, TX, on Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015. The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a family of single-seat, single-engine, all-weather stealth multirole fighters undergoing final development and testing by the United States. The fifth generation combat aircraft is designed to perform ground attack, aerial reconnaissance, and air defense missions. AFP PHOTO/LAURA bUCKMAN (Photo credit should read LAURA BUCKMAN/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Military strength has long been the Republican party mantra. Trump might be even more aggressive.

“In terms of going after terrorists from the air, you’d see an expansion of that,” says Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. Compared to Obama, Trump is not risk averse and is much more likely to take action that is “narrowly unilateral and doing it without an awful lot of discussion.”

Who wins? High-tech defense and aerospace manufacturers like Lockheed Martin  LMT -1.47% , Raytheon  RTN -0.73% , Boeing  BA -0.56% and Northrop Grumman  NOC -0.39% .

Infrastructure

infrastructure-projects

It should be clear to anyone with a car that the nation’s roads need an upgrade. And Trump has said he would like to do something about it. In a debate in December, Trump said the nation would benefit from spending billions fixing roads, bridges, airports.

“Mr. Trump is Mr. infrastructure,” says Peter Tanous, chairman of Washington D.C.-based Lynx Investment Advisory. “He has more experience building than any president in history.”

On top of that, Trump’s biggest campaign promise—building a 50-foot wall on the boarder of Mexico—would be a huge infrastructure project. Estimates range from $15 billion to $25 billion to build the wall, which would have to stretch some 2,000 miles to cover the entire board. Maintenance could run another $750 million annually.

Tanous points to Jacobs Engineering  JEC -0.89%  as a likely benefactor of such a makeover. Likewise, the Fluor  FLR -0.07% , which competes with Jacobs, will pick up business. As with all things that involve earth moving Caterpillar  CAT 2.19%  should benefit as well.

Small stocks over large

“He has a fairly protectionist message,” says Jason Pride, director of investment strategy. Protectionism, whether it be through tariffs or quotas on imported goods will be bad for multinationals because they are directly involved in international trade.

Smaller companies, particularly those that predominantly operate in the United States, will be dramatically less affected. As a result small cap stocks should outperform the shares of large companies. A good investment then could be Vanguard’s Russell 2000 ETF, which tracks 2000 small-cap and mid-sized companies.

Still, Pride warns, because Trump is an outsider to the globalization establishment there will likely be a lot of uncertainty about how things will turn out if he becomes president. Already, Trump has back peddled on getting rid of a visa program for skilled workers. So look for some softening on his stance against free trade as well.

Restaurants

the-restaurant

A protectionist policy to trade combined with a crack down on illegal immigration could have an interesting impact.

First, if companies started to manufacture in the U.S. again then we would likely see wages for skilled factory workers jump.

More and better wages for workers would likely benefit those industries not affected too much by international trade, like restaurants. That’s something that could benefit the dining business, says Peter Morici, professor of economics at the University of Maryland University School of Business.

That said, the back bone of the food service industry depends on at least some illegal labor. If the “mass deportation” ever materialized, which is doubtful, then wages and other costs in the restaurant business could rise as well.

Still, there could be a case for investing in primarily domestic chains, particularly those with clients that are less price sensitive if the restaurant industry does have to shell out more money for workers.Take a look at Del Frisco’s Restaurant  DFRG -1.12% , and primarily domestic Ruth’s Hospitality  RUTH 0.00% , which owns Ruth’s Chris Steak House.

If you want to earn a big quantity of money, we can provide a simple business strategy in Real Estate Investments. We can help you. Contact me Here

BUY HAPPINESS

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE AGE-OLD QUESTION OF MONEY AND HAPPINESS

By Kellie Colunga

“It’s the hap, happiest season of all,” the crooners sing. But is it? As much as we try to make loved ones our focus at the end of the year, the subject of money always seems to be lingering in the background. Whether you’re keeping a running mental tab on what you’ve spent on the holiday festivities, you’re waiting to hear if you got that raise or bonus, or you’re determining your end of the year giving, chances are you’ve got your mind on your money and your money on your mind (as Snoop Dog would say).

Is your money really serving you? Does it make you happier? Are you using it to lead a more fulfilled life? If you answered no to any of these questions, take heart, there is hope. Because the science says money does bring you happiness – if you use it right.

HIT YOUR TARGET

Happiness is correlated to income, but only up to $75,000, according to a highly publicized 2010 Princeton study. So what does this mean? According to the research, people reported having a greater “emotional well-being” based upon income up to $75,000, after which the level of happiness evened out.

Essentially, this study quantified what we instinctively had guessed – that money alleviates the stress of providing our most basic needs. In other words, $75,000 of annual income buys peace of mind. Meanwhile, low income intensifies the emotional strain of the trials of life like medical emergencies and divorce, causing compounded pain from financial insecurity.

In fact, one study concluded that income could actually reduce the incidence of serious mental illness. “We know from the results that changes in family income are important drivers of people’s emotional lives,” said David Clingingsmith, author of the paper and associate professor of economics at Case Western University.

What does this mean for you? Well, if you’ve already hit that $75,000 threshold and you’re not happy, it means you just need to learn how to spend effectively. Keep reading! If you haven’t hit that target yet, first things first: you need to get to know your numbers. Implement a spending plan and take massive action to get your financial security in place. Just having an emergency fund that covers your basic needs for three to six months will alleviate the little voice of panic inside you (or your partner) that constantly questions what will happen if a crisis occurs. (Book maybe you like MONEY Master the game)

However, the science says that no matter where you are at in your financial journey, spending your money in these ways will bring you more satisfaction in life.

3 WAYS TO SPEND MONEY THAT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE YOU HAPPIER

SPEND IT ON OTHERS – AND WITNESS THE IMPACT

As it turns out, science has upheld the maxim, “it’s better to give.” A Harvard study conducted across over 100 countries found that whether rich or poor, people who give to charity are happier. Perceived happiness increases even more when we can see the impact our gift has on someone.

Remember that moment when you gave someone a gift that you just…could…not…wait for them to open? As they opened your present, you searched their face for the delight that you knew that you put there by giving them a gift you knew they would love. Giving a gift that changes someone’s life or just makes them feel known and loved meets our deep need for love and connection, improving the quality of our own lives whilst improving another’s.

SPEND IT ON EXPERIENCES

Make memories, not purchases. Spending money on experiences makes us happier than spending money on material things for a few reasons.

For one, spending our money on experiences creates a connection with the people we shared that experience with – and those memories form a bigger part of our sense of identity than the things we buy. In fact, we remember experiences as better than they actually were. Alternatively, we adapt to the material purchases quickly.

ALREADY CONVINCED, BUT NEED IDEAS? HERE IS A LIST OF 7 “EXPERIENCE GIFTS” WE PUT TOGETHER FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

paper from Cornell University psychology professor Thomas Gilovich showed that we also get more pleasure out of anticipating experiences than anticipating the acquisition of material things. There is a reason that those brilliant credit card commercials tell a story of purchases made to create a ‘priceless’ memory. It is the experiences that stir up your emotions; it is the experiences that they are selling.

Consider this: The two days your spend waiting for your Amazon Prime package to arrive doesn’t build the same kind of anticipation as planning and dreaming about that vacation to Belize does. You take the time off work, brush up on your Spanish, read travel blogs and more, all the while thinking about how epic this trip is going to be. And once it’s over, you’ll tell the story of zip-lining through the rainforest to anyone who will listen for the rest of your life.

Best of all, we don’t compare experiences quite the same way we compare our material possessions to other people’s. Teddy Roosevelt may have said it best when he postulated, “Comparison is the thief of joy.” But thankfully, keeping up with the Jones’ doesn’t translate to experiences the same way it does to things. Sure, the Instagram pics of your college roommate’s family trip to Hawaii may give you travel envy, but it doesn’t diminish the joy you experienced camping in Yosemite with your spouse.

Although it may be easier to prioritize buying material goods, thinking they’ll offer better value for money in the long run, psychologists tell us that the opposite is true.

BUY BACK YOUR TIME

Studies also show that we are happier if we buy back our time. Wait, isn’t time the one thing money can’t buy us? As it turns out, no. Time is one of the most important things money can buy, precisely because it is such a valuable resource.

As the author of Happy Money: The Science of Happier Spending, Professor Elizabeth Dunn, suggests: “Don’t buy a slightly fancier car so that you have heated seats during your two-hour commute. Buy a place close to work, so that you can use that final hour of daylight to kick a ball around in the park with your kids.” A University of Zurich study agreed, citing that you would need a 40% raise to offset the added misery of a one-hour commute.

But it’s not just time sitting in traffic you can buy back. What would you be willing to give up to gain back the time you spend cleaning your house? Pack your lunch a couple of days a week and you may find that house cleaner is suddenly within budget, freeing up those precious hours.

This is especially difficult for those of us from hard-working families who were brought up to do things ourselves. Sure, we can change our own oil, but is it the best use of our time? Will it bring you joy? If so, have at it. If not, reconsider what your time is worth and spend accordingly.

TELL THE RIGHT STORY

Finally, your happiness is ultimately determined by the story you tell yourself. What is the story you consistently tell regarding your finances? Is it empowering you or limiting you? Is your story making you happy? As Tony Robbins says, “Change your story, change your life.”

On your journey to financial freedom, be sure to cultivate gratitude. One of the main reasons that collecting more things doesn’t make us happy in the long run is because we adapt quickly to it. Sonja Lyubomirsky, psychology professor at UC Riverside, says,” If you have a rise in income it gives you a boost, but then your aspirations rise too…You’ve stepped on the hedonic treadmill. Trying to prevent that or slow it down is really a challenge.”

Consciously fostering gratitude is key to maintaining joy. 

Wherever you are in your financial journey, may you find joy this holiday season

Book may be you like MONEY Master the game

More about Success: Why Sarcastic People are More Successful

Original Post in Tony Robbins/Money 

What Happens When Yellen Raises Rates?

Now we’re in the 7th year of good economy, after the FED increased the rate to .25 pts., we will start a deflationary economy, at 9 years, we will start a new recession market.

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It’s never been more important to understand how much control the central banks have over the economy and its limits. There’s one force moving our economy they can not influence…discover what it is in this video.

Mike Maloney candidly explains what actions the Federal Reserve may take in months ahead and what it means to you and your money in this brief video recorded live at the 2015 Silver Summit.

 

Patrick Iturra, Corporate Adviser

Do you need Insurance against the U.S. Dollar?

The world’s financial landscape is changing…
And it could soon cause a lot of money to move out of the U.S. dollar.
So how do you protect yourself? By following China’s lead.
Let me explain…
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) announced that China’s currency – the yuan – will join its reserve currency basket.
This basket includes the currencies of the world’s financial superpowers – the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, and the euro.
The yuan being added to this basket will give China a new global status. And  Steve Sjuggerud says it will cause hundreds of billions of dollars to move into the yuan… and potentially out of the U.S. dollar. Here’s what he wrote in a May DailyWealth essay:
Billions of dollars will move into [the yuan] when it achieves reserve currency status. The likely loser in this will be the U.S. dollar – as governments diversify a percentage of their currency reserves out of the dollar and into this currency.
You see, the U.S. is facing an enormous $59 trillion debt problem. The only way for the U.S. government to pay its incredible debt is to print more and more dollars… and debase an already devalued currency. (Every time the Fed prints a new dollar, the value of every dollar in circulation declines just a little bit.) This doesn’t make the dollar all that appealing to investors.
Printing-money
But soon, investors will have a new, more appealing reserve currency to invest in. China is the world’s second-largest economy. In a few years it could be the world’s largest economy. And China has a huge hoard of gold. From January to September, the country added around 1,171 metric tons of gold to its hoard. That’s more than the Swiss government has in its vaults. And in October, China bought another 14 metric tons of gold. China has spent about $70 million buying gold over the past two years.
While it’s probably impossible for China to have a completely “gold-backed” currency, this gold allows the yuan to offer a guarantee more substantial than the dollar, which is only backed by the “full faith and credit of the U.S. government.”
That’s why investors are soon likely to diversify out of the dollar and into the yuan.
So how do you protect yourself from a decline in the U.S. dollar? Follow China’s lead and buy gold…
China-Gold
In November,  China has secretly been buying massive amounts of gold as insurance against the U.S. dollar.
In short, thanks to its exports, China’s foreign-currency reserves have swollen from $2.5 billion in 1980 to $3.7 trillion today… So China has had to figure out what to do with all that cash.
Initially, China bought U.S. government bonds. It holds $1.3 trillion in U.S. bonds… the most U.S. debt in the world. But with a dollar crisis likely on the way, China faces a huge problem…
So it has been “safeguarding” the value of its currency reserves. That means one thing… buying gold. Because gold is a real store of value, the price of gold goes up if something bad happens to the U.S. stock market or dollar.
I recommend safeguarding your own wealth against the dollar by buying and holding gold bullion. And with the price of gold down more than 40% since its 2011 peak, there hasn’t been a better time to buy in the past five years.
Take a page from China’s playbook… stock up on some gold bullion. It’s a smart insurance policy as the world’s financial landscape changes.
If paper currencies like the U.S. dollar collapse, gold will still hold value. That’s why Doug Casey, one of the world’s top experts on gold and resource investing, views gold as “cash in its most basic form.” 
Contact me HERE if you need more information about my gold free program strategy

Found $2.7 Trillion Magical Dollars

Learn More: Blame the government, not Wall Street [“A liquidity drought can exacerbate, or even trigger, the next financial crisis. Sellers will offer securities, but there will be no buyers”]

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Fed May Take Rates Negative, Bond And Stock Markets Crash Warning, GOP and DNC Fear Trump

The Federal Reserve is not raising interest rates, but now there are hints by Fed Head Janet Yellen that it might consider negative interest rates if the economy gets bad enough. The economy is already bad, and the Fed decision to keep a key rate near 0% says it all. I have been telling you for a couple of years that there is no real recovery on Main Street. The only real recovery is on Wall Street. Data point after data point shows the economy is not good. This is why the Fed is not raising interest rates.

On top of that bad news, people like Nobel Prize winning economist Professor Robert Shiller continue to warn that the stock market looks like it is in a bubble. There are also reports of the biggest double top in stock market history that was recently made, and when that happens, it is downhill for the markets. This includes the global debt market that dwarfs the stock market by orders of magnitude. I just interviewed former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman, and he says the “financial system is booby trapped with debt bombs.” This is not if the bond market will blow up, but only a matter of when the bond market will blow up.

CNN was the only real loser in the second GOP debate. The debate started out looking like CNN just wanted the candidates to trash Trump. It looked juvenile and petty, and even NJ Governor Chris Christie called BS on the BS when he directed the discussion back to how the GOP was going to help the struggling middle class. Trump won the debate by virtue of the fact CNN centered it on him and tried to get the other candidates to tear him down. Sure, there were candidates that had their moments, and some will move up and down in the polls, but Trump still emerges as the front-runner. Let’s make this perfectly clear, Donald trump could win it all.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up. usawatchdog.com